
Because of the European elections earlier this year (with their low turnout and the worrying success of the far right British National Party and the anti-European UK Independence Party) many Brits imagine that the Germany election, and the Irish referendum, are unimportant. In truth the outcomes will help to determine the success of the UK for a generation.
As the Oxford historian Timothy Garton Ash pointed out in an interview with Der Spiegel last month, ‘the true European elections will take place in Germany at the end of September.’
Garton Ash has one of the sharpest minds around. Like me, he lived in Berlin in the late Seventies and early Eighties. But while I was swanning about making movies with Bowie and Dietrich, he wrote his first book ‘Und willst Du nicht mein Bruder sein …’, a critical account of communist East Germany which lead to him being banned from visiting that country. His next books ‘The Polish Revolution’, winner of the Somerset Maugham Award, ‘The Uses of Adversity: Essays on the Fate of Central Europe’ and ‘We the People: The Revolution of ’89’ were seminal works, and constantly at my side when I penned my first book ‘Stalin’s Nose’. Since then he’s advised presidents and prime ministers, as well as directing the European Studies Centre at St Antony’s College, Oxford and serving as a Fellow at Stanford. It’s no surprise then that Time magazine included him in their list of the world's 100 most influential people.
Garton Ash believes that the European project is a victim of its own success. As he told Der Spiegel, ‘In each country, the pro-European argument, all national differences aside, took the same form: We were doing poorly, but thanks to Europe our lot will improve. But then comes the moment when we take Europe for granted, which raises the question: What is the purpose of this Europe?’
This questioning, and the understanding that EU is no direct democracy, lead voters to elect a new European parliament where at least 15 percent of the members represent right-wing extremists, protest groups and joke parties. So what does this mean for Europe's future?
Garton Ash recalled Bertolt Brecht words, ‘The womb is fertile still, which bore this fruit’. In the interview he went on, ‘We are deluding ourselves if we believe that the temptation of xenophobia and national populism no longer exists, and we shouldn’t be surprised to see these forces being strengthened in the course of a major economic crisis. We must make the social market economy credible again as the central solution for the middle class.’
When Der Speigel asked him how this might be achieved, he replied, ‘There are two major domestic policy challenges for the European Union. First: creating meaningful work for the majority of society. And second: the integration of fellow citizens of non-European descent. These are two sides of the same coin. After all, what are the populists and xenophobes saying, from Latvia to Portugal, and from Finland to Greece? They are saying: We’re in bad shape, and the others are at fault. Both parts of that sentence must be addressed politically.’

There is also the plain truth that Britain – in common with all the countries of the continent -- will only prosper by collaborating on a common foreign policy. The future is being shaped by China, America and India. Nothing can stop that shift in power. So to defend European interest in an increasingly non-European world, EU members must combine forces and work together.
And what about the Irish referendum on the Lisbon treaty? Last month in the Guardian Garton Ash wrote that the poet Seamus Heaney has come out plainly for a yes vote to the treaty. Recalling a memorable evening five years ago in Dublin’s Phoenix Park when Ireland's EU presidency welcomed ten new nations into the union, Heaney observed: ‘Phoenix renewed itself, just as the Union was renewing itself and continues to need to renew itself’. In a video clip recorded for the launch of the new Ireland for Europe campaign, Heaney stated, ‘There are many reasons for ratifying the Lisbon treaty, reasons to do with our political and economic well being, but … mainly for our honour and identity as Europeans.’ Then he read from his poem Beacons at Bealtaine which includes the line ‘Move lips, move minds and make new meanings flare.’
It ‘takes an Irish poet to remind us of the essential grandeur of this project we call the European Union, where nations born in so much blood work together freely in a commonwealth of democracies,’ wrote Garton Ash. May nay-sayers in Island Britain realise that a German election and an Irish referendum can ensure that the country doesn’t become a spent force by the middle of the twenty-first century.













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